Research Triangle hiring data, read for the people doing the hiring and the people looking for work.
Employers in Durham and Chapel Hill are posting fewer jobs than they did before the pandemic. About 20 miles east, Raleigh-Cary sits at 109.5, almost 10% above the same baseline. Both metros have been climbing since mid-August, and the gap between them is now about 15 points.
Of the 32 metros in Indeed's data that include part of North Carolina, Raleigh-Cary ranks 28th and Durham-Chapel Hill 31st. Durham's economy leans on research institutions that have absorbed federal funding cuts, RTI International among them.2
| Indicator | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|
| North Carolina unemploymentNC Commerce · Sep · SA | 3.4% | Down 0.1 pt from August, 0.5 pt from a year ago |
| Raleigh-Cary job postingsIndeed Hiring Lab · Oct 9 · SA · private data | 109.5 | Up from 103.0 on Sep 1. U.S. 104.2 |
| Durham-Chapel Hill job postingsIndeed Hiring Lab · Oct 9 · SA · private data | 94.7 | Up from 90.0 on Sep 1. Feb 2020 = 100 |
| Raleigh-Cary unemploymentNC Commerce · Aug · NSA · prelim | 3.1% | September metro figures due October 28 |
| Durham-Chapel Hill unemploymentNC Commerce · Aug · NSA · prelim | 3.3% | September metro figures due October 28 |
| U.S. initial jobless claimsU.S. Labor Dept · week ending Oct 10 · SA | 199K | Under 200K for three straight weeks. N.C. 2,829 (NSA) |
The national data has been quiet since the September jobs report. First-time jobless claims were 199,000 in the week ending October 10, and they have stayed under 200,000 in each of the last three weeks.3 Layoffs remain rare. The problem for job seekers is still the pace of hiring.
The Atlanta Fed described the market on October 15 as a holding pattern. Payroll growth from March through September averaged 87,000 jobs a month, about a quarter of the 2021 to 2024 pace, and the bank's business contacts said they plan little hiring for the rest of 2026.4 Closer to home, the Richmond Fed's Beige Book, which covers North Carolina, reported on October 14 that employment in its district increased slightly.5
Raleigh-Cary job postings bottomed at 102.6 in mid-August, their lowest reading of the year, then rose to 109.5 by October 9, the highest since late June. Durham-Chapel Hill followed the same path from a lower floor, from 89.1 to 94.7. Both are higher than a year ago, when Raleigh stood at 105.3 and Durham at 92.6.6
North Carolina's unemployment rate fell to 3.4% in September, from 3.5% in August and 3.9% a year earlier, and remains well under the national 4.2%. As in August, part of the drop reflects a smaller workforce: the state counted 49,720 fewer employed people than a year earlier. Employers added about 600 jobs in September and 67,000 over the year. Professional and business services, which includes consulting, engineering and staffing firms, lost 1,500 jobs in the month but has added 25,500 over the year, more than any other sector.7
Raleigh is posting more jobs than before the pandemic. Durham is posting fewer.
Indeed job postings index, 2026, seasonally adjusted, February 1, 2020 = 100
North Carolina as a whole stands at 113.4 and Charlotte at 113.3, so both Triangle metros trail the rest of the state.
No new WARN notices were filed for the five Triangle counties through the state's October 15 update. Statewide, the recent filings came from MasterBrand Cabinets in Lenoir County (391 workers) and Pella in Rockingham County (133).
| Employer | Where | Affected | What we know |
|---|---|---|---|
| RTI International | RTP | ~200 | Announced Oct 1, this quarter. Still not in the state WARN list as of Oct 15. |
| Asensus Surgical | Morrisville | 108 | WARN notice filed Jun 16. Effective through Mar 2027. |
| Red Storm Entertainment | Cary | 105 | WARN notice filed Mar 19, effective Sep 18. |
| Epic Games | Cary | 211 | WARN notice filed Mar 24, effective Mar 27. |
| Expansions None announced for Triangle counties by NC Commerce from Oct 1 to 16. Statewide: a $95 million defense expansion in Mooresville, 105 jobs at a utility manufacturer in Catawba County, and $504 million with 78 jobs across rural counties. | |||
“AI is wiping out software developer jobs.”
The entry level is shrinking. Stanford's 2026 AI Index found employment for developers aged 22 to 25 fell nearly 20% from 2024, and 16% across AI-exposed fields for that age group. The Triangle has felt tech cuts too, with SAS cutting about 300 jobs in June.
Indeed's software development postings rose almost 15% from late February 2025 while all postings fell 7%. Its index stood at 78.1 on October 9, up from 64.3 a year earlier, though still 22% below February 2020. Senior roles accounted for 71% of the listing growth from May 2025 to May 2026.
Bottom line. Demand for experienced developers is growing. The decline is concentrated among the youngest workers, and the data does not show how much of it AI caused.
The postings gap between Raleigh and Durham is the kind of thing public data shows but can't explain. The panel is how this brief will start to explain it: what Triangle employers and professionals are seeing, from how long searches take to which roles are hardest to fill.
Once a month, panelists answer three questions in about two minutes. Responses are anonymous and reported only in aggregate, and panelists see the results before anyone else.